Hume – Australia 2028

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11 COMMENTS

  1. Hume is right at the edge of metropolitan Sydney and is where the growing mortgage belt meets semi-rural areas.

    There is a demographic shift east of The Northern Road (Leppington, Oran Park, Harrington Park) where there are new greenfield housing estates and a growing mortgage belt. The demographic centre of the electorate is shifting towards this area. Voters are more likely to vote Green than One Nation. The demographics are favouring Labor longer-term.

    In the southern and western parts, the semi-rural nature and historic small towns and villages see stronger support for the Liberals. One Nation also does better here than in the newer suburbs.

  2. @ Votante
    Harrington Park is more Estabalished which is why it is more Liberal voting with a higher median age. I do agree tht Oran Park, Leppington and Bringelly will be mortgage belt battlegrounds though. Rossmore and Bringelly are still rural but with a rail extention i expect it to change quickly. I just looked at the 2010 Macathur guide Narellan Vale had the biggest swing for any booth in NSW in both 1996 and 2007 but it did not really swing mich a 0.6% swing in 2022 to Libs against state trend while in 2022 change of governmet it was 6% so maybe once these suburbs become established it is getting more Conservative

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/election-2010/macarthur

  4. I’m not convinced that Taylor becoming leader is going to solve the Liberals woes, it will be interesting to see if he has the numbers.

  5. There’s mention from the party that Taylor is one or two votes short of winning. I think there some Liberal MPs who aren’t too keen on Ley but wouldn’t want her to go so soon to save face or to minimise instability.

    @Nimalan, Harrington Park has a lot of young families and mortgage holders in some parts. Elderslie is another new growth suburb.

  6. Angus as leader is s blessing for Labor. He gives the impression that he considers himself as entitled and is lazy.

  8. Changing leader is only going worsen things for the Liberals, also its likely if Taylor can’t turn things around he’ll be rolled as leader by Hastie.

  9. It’s like same horse but different jockey unless Taylor can turn things around, reconcile with the Nationals and make the Liberals stand for something. I think there’s a genuine fear in the party that ex-Coalition voters could be lost permanently if they don’t improve their standing.

  10. Should taylor win then ley may pull.the.plug and cause a by-election.
    There is a real chance the libs may lose the seat to.the nats or independent